We know the demand for power in the auction for 2028
The Ministry of Climate and Environment (MKiŚ) has revealed that the power demand in the upcoming primary auction for the year 2028 is projected to reach 5,791 megawatts (MW). These figures are outlined in the preliminary regulation drafted by the Minister of Climate and Environment for the primary auction designated for the delivery year 2028. Furthermore, the specifications for additional auctions intended for the delivery year 2024 have been defined. These announcements offer insights into the anticipated energy landscape and the measures being taken to address power requirements in the years to come.
Following the established approach from prior years, the initial price for a new generation unit has remained unaffected by inflation and has been maintained at PLN 431 per kilowatt (kW). This standardized pricing strategy aligns with previous practices and aims to ensure consistency in the valuation of new generation units within the energy market.
The stipulated timeline envisions the potential commencement of contracts in 2023, with the actual capital expenditures being borne by the power supplier prior to the initiation of deliveries. To inform this process, the Transmission System Operator (TSO) conducted an analysis of investments in analogous sources within Poland and across the globe. Operating costs were formulated with reference to various sources, including data derived from the World Energy Outlook. This comprehensive evaluation was undertaken to ensure the accuracy and reliability of investment and operational estimations for comparable energy ventures.
The issuance of the auction ordinance is a recurring practice, undertaken periodically. This regulatory document provides a comprehensive overview, including detailed demand projections for each quarter of a specific year. It also encompasses a variety of essential parameters, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of the energy landscape. These parameters serve as crucial reference points for planning and executing energy-related activities and investments.
- The maximum price assigned for the price taker role, established through a calculation involving fixed capital and operating costs.
- The minimum volumes of capacity obligations projected to be procured as a consequence of supplementary auctions.
- Availability correction factors applicable to distinct technology categories.
- The specific level of net investment outlays linked to the attainable net capacity, which qualifies for offering capacity obligations within the primary auction.
- The minimum volumes of capacity obligations anticipated to be secured through supplementary auctions.
These parameters collectively contribute to a comprehensive framework for managing capacity obligations, ensuring transparency, and fostering an efficient energy market.
The projected demand for the year 2028 closely resembles the value anticipated for the upcoming year. For the year 2024, the demand value is projected to be 5993 MW, with its distribution across quarters as follows:
- 3,520 MW for the first quarter,
- 1,131 MW for the second quarter,
- 500 MW for the third quarter,
- 842 MW for the fourth quarter.
Each regulation outlining the auction parameters is published, ensuring timely dissemination of information, no later than 18 weeks prior to the commencement of each primary auction. This proactive approach ensures that stakeholders have sufficient time to familiarize themselves with the parameters, fostering transparency and effective planning within the energy sector.
Source: WysokieNapiecie.pl