Is expensive oil heading toward Poland? The economy is growing, but energy risks are returning — according to recent reports.

Poland’s economy continues to grow faster than most EU countries, but experts increasingly warn that energy prices and geopolitical tensions are becoming the key threat to future growth — according to recent reports. Please confirm the latest details with a trusted news source.

Poland’s GDP is expected to increase by around 3.5% in 2026, according to economists at BNP Paribas Bank. This is similar to last year’s result and clearly stronger than in many Western European economies. The country’s economic fundamentals remain solid, yet global energy‑market developments are beginning to weigh more heavily on growth prospects.

The Strait of Hormuz back at the center of global energy concerns

The greatest source of anxiety is the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil‑transport corridors. Analysts warn that disruptions in exports from the Persian Gulf could trigger another sharp spike in fuel and energy prices.

Estimates suggest that the conflict has reduced oil and refined‑product exports from the region by 13–15 million barrels per day, equivalent to more than 10% of global fuel consumption. For now, the world is cushioning the shock through releases of strategic reserves and increased availability of Russian crude, but prolonged tensions could destabilize the global economy.

For Poland, this would mean higher fuel prices, rising transport costs, and more expensive industrial production.

We discussed the fuel crisis with Marcin Popkiewicz:

Consumers grow more cautious, companies count energy costs

Rising fuel prices and geopolitical uncertainty are beginning to affect consumer sentiment. Economists note that consumer‑confidence indicators have deteriorated in recent months, which may translate into slower growth in household spending.

Although Polish households still have a financial cushion built up in previous years, consumers are becoming increasingly cautious in the face of rising living costs and an uncertain international environment.

Weaker sentiment is also visible in Western Europe, which may negatively affect Polish exports and the industrial sector.

Over PLN 200 billion from the EU set to drive investment

According to economists, the main engine of economic growth in the coming quarters will be investments financed with EU funds. Poland may receive a record inflow of financing from the National Recovery Plan and other European programmes.

The total value of available funds may exceed PLN 200 billion. Particularly important are grants from the Recovery Plan and funds related to security and defence.

The sectors expected to benefit most from increased investment include:

• machine manufacturers
• infrastructure
• construction
• transport industry
• defence and energy companies

Experts also expect a rebound in construction, which has been stagnant for months.

Inflation may accelerate again to 4%

Rising energy and fuel prices are once again increasing inflationary pressure. Economists point out that not only energy‑related inflation has risen in recent months, but also core inflation.

This means a risk of so‑called second‑round effects — the pass‑through of higher energy costs into the prices of other goods and services across the economy.

Analysts forecast that CPI inflation may rise to around 4% by the end of the year before easing again in 2027. The key factor will be how long elevated energy‑commodity prices persist.

Interest rates likely to remain stable?

The baseline scenario of economists assumes that the National Bank of Poland will keep interest rates unchanged until the end of the year. However, if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates further, additional rate hikes may become possible.

Experts note that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz and further increases in oil prices could force the Monetary Policy Council to tighten monetary policy as early as autumn.

For now, the złoty remains relatively stable, supported by the inflow of EU funds and the solid condition of the Polish economy.

Energy transition becomes a matter of security

The current crisis once again shows that the energy transition is no longer solely a climate project. It is increasingly becoming a pillar of economic and geopolitical security.

Countries dependent on fossil‑fuel imports remain most vulnerable to global conflicts and commodity‑price volatility. Therefore, for Poland, investments in the following areas are crucial:

• renewable energy sources
• energy storage
• power‑grid infrastructure
• supply‑diversification
• domestic generation capacity

The pace of the energy transition may become one of the most important factors determining the competitiveness of the Polish economy and the resilience of its industry to global crises in the coming years.