Will global decarbonisation cause a shortage of materials?

The ambitious objective of decarbonizing the world demands substantial transformations across multiple industries at an unprecedented speed. This process is causing shifts in material requirements and transformations in supply chains. As outlined in the report “The Net-Zero Materials Transition: Implications for Global Supply Chains,” these changes may lead to notable shortages of specific materials, underscoring the significance of this shift.

Until the year 2030, the supply of numerous minerals and metals that play a crucial role in essential low-carbon technologies could face significant shortages. For instance, the potential scarcity of nickel might range from 10 to 20 percent.

Dysprosium, a material vital for the magnets in most electric motors, could experience a shortage amounting to 70 percent of the overall demand. If appropriate actions aren’t taken to address this, it could impede the global progress toward decarbonization.

Furthermore, such a scenario could result in sharp price increases for these materials. Consequently, the technologies relying on these materials would become more costly, subsequently slowing down their wider adoption.

Necessary steps to take

The report’s authors present a range of essential measures to mitigate potential shortages. Firstly, it’s crucial to boost investment in mining, refining, and smelting, reaching an approximate total of $4 trillion by 2030. This investment will require an increase in human resources, bringing in around 600,000 mining specialists.

Industries further along the supply chain must pivot towards established technologies that demand fewer materials or rely on materials that are more abundant.

Equally important are political decisions that facilitate the shift in demand towards alternative technologies. These policy choices will play a pivotal role in shaping the way forward.

Innovation is key

As highlighted in the report, a crucial focal point is the advancement of new technologies. There’s a pressing need to elevate investment in material innovation. On the demand side, this entails investigating chances for material substitution. Meanwhile, on the supply side, emphasis should be placed on cultivating recycling technologies.

Polish scientists are playing an active role in this endeavor. We’ve recently covered groundbreaking innovations from Poland regarding energy storage production. Professor Marcin Molenda’s team has developed a technology that enables battery production without relying on cobalt and utilizing only one-fifth the amount of nickel, making it a groundbreaking advancement.