France challenges the 2040 climate target. Upcoming Brussels summit with climate in the background

On July 2, the European Commission is expected to present its official climate target proposal for 2040. According to preliminary reports, the goal will be to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90 percent compared to 1990 levels. Although the topic is not on the official agenda of the upcoming EU summit in Brussels, France has announced it will not remain silent. Paris wants the rationale behind setting such an ambitious target to be at the center of political discussions among EU leaders.

France and Poland aligned – raising concerns about competitiveness

The French government, supported by Poland, argues that the proposed 2040 target could threaten the competitiveness of the European economy. According to Paris, imposing such a target could deepen economic difficulties, especially in energy-intensive industries. EU sources reveal that France plans to use the summit as a platform to voice opposition to tightening climate policy without considering the economic realities of individual member states.

A political signal to von der Leyen

In Brussels, insiders say France’s main goal is to send a clear message to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Paris wants to highlight that not all EU leaders support the direction set by the European Green Deal. Sources indicate that France will emphasize serious concerns about pushing further emission targets without broad debate about their economic impact.

Could the Commission soften its stance?

Even though climate policy is not formally on the summit agenda, the issue may be raised during discussions on the EU’s economic competitiveness. According to EU sources, even if the summit’s conclusions do not officially question the 2040 goal, the debate itself could influence the final shape of the Commission’s proposal.

There is speculation that von der Leyen may consider mitigation mechanisms for member states. One idea being discussed is allowing countries to count “green investments” in third countries toward their national reduction targets. This kind of emissions “outsourcing” would enable member states to meet EU targets by funding climate projects in poorer countries outside the EU.

Context: 90% reduction and economic pressure

The proposed 2040 target—a 90% cut in emissions compared to 1990 levels—is among the most ambitious in EU history. It is meant as a stepping stone toward full climate neutrality by 2050. Supporters argue that without setting such goals, the EU won’t fulfill its commitments under the Paris Agreement.

However, critics including France and Poland warn of the economic consequences. They argue that such an ambitious goal could raise production costs in Europe, reduce industrial competitiveness, and deepen socio-economic challenges in regions reliant on traditional energy sources.

Is compromise possible?

It is unlikely that Brussels will formally reject the 2040 target—especially given that many EU capitals continue to support the European Green Deal. However, the Commission’s stance may be softened, possibly by allowing greater flexibility for individual countries and providing additional support mechanisms for the most vulnerable sectors.

In the coming weeks, European climate and economic observers will closely watch the Commission’s proposal and any political statements that may emerge from the EU summit.