Prof. Marcin Molenda: The ability to produce energy storage facilities at the level of a given economy will determine its energy independence

Professor Marcin Molenda heads the Materials and Nanomaterials Technology Team at the Faculty of Chemistry of the Jagiellonian University. New technologies developed under the professor’s leadership could revolutionize the sector of stationary energy storage and EV production.

The scientist and innovator told us about his research and the challenges faced by the energy storage industry.

What does your team’s research focus on?

My team’s research is primarily devoted to the development of new material solutions that will be sustainable, i.e. manufactured in such a way as to burden the environment as little as possible. This is based on the use of renewable and readily available raw materials.

The technologies themselves are designed in such a way that they are simple, as energy-intensive as possible, and generate a minimum amount of waste. The ideal solution is waste-free technologies, although here there is always the question of how, for example, process gases that are neutral will be treated.

The technologies are not only low-carbon , but also help to extend the life of the product. We try to predict how long the material will be used in the product. Thanks to this, we can maximally extend the operating time so that the least financially beneficial aspect related to recycling is postponed.

Do we look at technologies as a closed-loop process from the generation of the functional material, through the product, to the utilization of the used product back into the production cycle. This process is to be optimal from the closed-loop point of view. It may therefore turn out that at some stages some components will not be cost-optimal, but in the overall settlement it will be the most beneficial for the entire value chain.

The research concerns both stationary warehouses and those used in EVs?

Research is conducted in the field of developing energy storage technology. Whether it will be only for energy storage or for cars is a secondary matter. To be able to store energy, you must start with the materials that will be used to build the cell. The cells are then compiled into a warehouse, i.e. a battery of cells.

How the warehouse works depends of course on the components it is made of. Material technologies are key here. They determine the efficiency, durability and safety of the warehouse and, of course, its cost. If we have expensive raw materials, there is no chance to produce a cheap warehouse.

Will the dynamic development of this broadly understood battery sector result in shortages of raw materials?

The energy storage market will grow twenty-fold over the next decade . I would venture to say that the increase can be as much as twenty-five times.

First of all, I would like to emphasize one more point. One of the most important questions is where we will get the energy we will store. This is extremely important because we will not be storing energy from fossil fuels. Such actions would be completely pointless. The point is that we need to store the energy we obtain from renewable sources.  

Back to the question, let’s look at the forecasts historical and up-to-date. History shows that all predictions are always underestimated. The energy storage market will grow twenty-fold over the next decade . I would venture to say that the increase can be as much as twenty-five times.

What it comes from?

In order to use renewable energy, we need to store it. Renewable energy sources are time unstable and periodically variable, so the effective use of RES is closely related to energy storage. As a result, the energy storage market is developing in an unsustainable way. There is currently no other industry like this that would develop so quickly.

We must not forget that cobalt, or other raw materials used in batteries, are also used in other industries. If we continue with the very rapid growth of the energy storage sector, these shortages will appear.

The sourcing of raw materials does not look like suddenly we will find that we will extract more nickel or cobalt. Firstly, resources are limited, and secondly, cobalt is mined in conjunction with copper mining. An increase in cobalt extraction must result in an increase in copper extraction. Yes, copper is also needed for production in the EV sector, but is it in proportion to the increased cobalt extraction I don’t think so, so of course it will cause some turbulence also on the market of other raw materials that are obtained in the process.

If there is too much supply of a commodity, its price will fall. This is simply disadvantageous for the manufacturer, so he will try to avoid it. The balance of profits and losses is decisive.

The development of the energy storage market will affect the costs of these base materials and will be directly related to their availability. This will also translate into the costs of the target product, i.e. the energy storage.

This can be seen after last year when average cell prices increased for the first time. This is, of course, due to the geopolitical situation, but also to the fact that scaling up does not have such a significant effect in terms of reducing the cost of the product.

Summing up, each such dynamic development of the market will cause limitations in the availability of raw materials, which in turn translates into an increase in their prices.

Will the shortages affect both producers and stationary energy storage?

It depends on what material technologies manufacturers use and the availability of raw materials for a given country. This has to be considered within the economy and how its access to raw materials has been secured. In general, both the electric car market and the market of stationary warehouses will experience shortages of raw materials to a similar extent. Where does it come from Cells for stationary warehouses or for cars are often produced in the same factories. So if there are shortages in the EV market, of course, it will also affect stationary warehouses.

Naturally, we can judge that if we move towards technologies based on LFP material, raw materials will be more readily available. This does not change the fact that access to lithium is always important and critical in this matter.

What will be the effects of these shortages?

At the moment, whoever has access to energy resources decides and deals the cards. Access to raw materials used in the production of energy storage facilities will in the future play the same role as energy resources currently do.

We can divide them into short-term and long-term. From the short-term point of view, of course, any limitation in the availability of the raw material causes an increase in its price and translates directly into the cost of the product and the consumer.

The long-term effects are more important. If we see that raw material availability is critical for ensuring the supply chain, it will determine the choice of technology and technological independence. This may be problematic for the manufacturer’s future activities.

To some extent, technology allows us to adapt. However, adaptation is usually carried out when the process is implemented and production begins. When this process is already productively operational, adaptation is practically impossible, and certainly not as part of maintaining current operating costs. So this will increase the costs.

An even more important long-term effect is dependence on a given technology for which we do not have secured supply chains. At some point, this causes us to become dependent on a supplier of raw material to which we do not have full rights. This is analogous to being dependent on energy resources.

At the moment, whoever has access to energy resources decides and deals with the cards. Access to raw materials used in the production of energy storage facilities will in the future play the same role as energy resources currently do. It is the raw material that will decide who has the technological advantage. The possibility of producing its own energy storage facilities at the level of a given economy will therefore determine its energy independence. This will directly translate into energy security and competitiveness of the economy.

Which countries are currently leaders in the extraction and supply of raw materials necessary for the production of energy storage facilities?

Currently, if we look at cobalt, it is primarily the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The country is politically unstable and far from ethical sourcing.

When it comes to lithium, Australia is probably the largest lithium miner and supplier at the moment, followed by Chile and Bolivia. In addition, countries such as Mexico, Iran, and Serbia should be mentioned, where the presence of deposits has been identified.

I don’t think the availability of lithium is critical in terms of the amount of its resources. New deposits are successively discovered, and if the price of the raw material is high enough, it can be obtained profitably from salt water.

So, which raw material is most at risk/problematic?

In my opinion, this is cobalt, which is being abandoned and which is an important component of high-energy cells. However, if we are talking about cells for stationary storage, lithium and graphite are critical here, which affect the carbon footprint of the cell. Even if you move towards silicon anodes, they are used together with graphite, so the demand will always be high.

It is important not only where the raw material is obtained, but also where it is processed for battery purposes. Here, however, China dominates, processing up to 70% of raw materials for the needs of the battery industry.

The market does not like emptiness. This was the case with graphite when its shortages were predicted around 2026. This gap was quickly filled by producers from Africa, thanks to synthetic graphite. Of course, this is mostly controlled by Chinese entities.

Can we prevent these shortages?

We are in this comfortable situation that we are fully aware of potential deficiencies, so they should be prevented, not treated. We must develop, promote, and implement technologies that meet the requirements of raw material availability, processing energy, toxicity, and cost. Of course, we cannot reconcile all these parameters, but in accordance with the principle of technological moderation, we can find a solution that adequately addresses all problems and at the same time ensures the required functionality of the product.

The problem of potential shortages of raw material should be considered in the long term because the cell is a device that naturally wears out over time and this is inevitable. It is normal that it needs to be replaced after a certain period of time. If we decide on a specific cell technology, it is with the prospect that in a few or a dozen or so years, we can replace them with new cells, for which we have provided raw materials for production. Operational security over time is more important than temporary parameters.

What role can your research play in this?

It is difficult to say unequivocally. Time will tell what role they will play, but it is important that they are all designed and developed in a sustainable way. We use green chemistry processes, we look for raw materials that are safe in terms of supplies and those whose processing processes are not toxic.

These are not solutions that show the best parameters in their category. The term best in its category must have a reference point. In this case, the question is whether it is a short-term or long-term effect. We develop technologies that are safe in terms of raw materials. Including those made of renewable raw materials and also raw materials that can be processed in green chemistry processes, i.e. low-emission with a small amount of generated waste or completely waste-free. In this context, they can be crucial for producers who think about this business in the long term.

Our research responds to situations where the cheapest product is not decisive, but one that is predictable and whose price and availability are also predictable over time and secured. It is a material platform that allows the construction of a lithium-ion or sodium-ion cell with specific assumed parameters that will meet the given functional assumptions. For example, a defined lifetime of the product and as simple recycling as possible.

Please tell us about the technologies you are working on

There are 4 material solutions. The first concerns the method of producing cathode or anodic nanocomposites. Whether cathode or anode, this composite improves chemical stability and electrical conductivity. It also increases the integrity of the electrode and reduces the amount of carbon additives, i.e. passive materials, in the cell. This also translates into a reduction in chemical reactivity, which increases safety (for example, reducing the risk of cell ignition).

The second solution concerns the anode material, which is produced from a renewable raw material such as corn, rice, or potato starch. This ensures independence from graphite supplies and makes it possible to produce materials according to the appropriate specification from commonly available raw materials. In addition, this technology gives the opportunity to easily influence the parameters of the product through appropriate processing.

The third technology is a high-voltage spinel material modified with a small amount of nickel and potassium. This solution, in turn, allows to obtain high power and energy of the cell. It can be said that it is an alternative material in relation to NMC class materials, with a cost lower by several dozen percent due to the lack of cobalt and low nickel content.

The fourth solution concerns an anode composite based on LTO material with the use of a carbogel matrix, which allows to increase in the operating voltage range of such a cell and its capacity.

From these technologies, we can compose any system/cell, focusing on high safety, high durability or high power and optimization of these parameters depending on the target requirements.

There is no way to get high cell energy, high power, high durability and high safety, because these are parameters from different areas. Unfortunately, it is impossible to obtain a cell with a very high durability, which at the same time will work with high power densities.

Returning to the first technology, have you found a way to self-ignite EVs?

It should be remembered that a large amount of energy is stored in the cell. If it is released in a short time, the power that is then generated is very large. This, in turn, translates into high heat emissions and rapid thermal effects.

If we have the ability to reduce this chemical reactivity, for example by producing carbon nanocomposites, this is a way to increase the margin of safety.

Keep in mind that any device that stores energy is potentially dangerous – this energy can be released uncontrollably. If we can control how this energy is released from the material at the level of the material solution, it will affect safety.

Solutions related to carbon nanocomposites affect the way in which the material releases energy by imposing appropriate constraints related to mass transport in systems and, as a result, will affect the smoother release of energy.

We can’t do miracles, because we can’t ‘override’ the laws of physics, but we can prevent such critical situations and, at some level, control the way the energy is released from the material.

Are material shortages the biggest threat to the energy storage sector today? Do you see any other threats?

It is important to realize that the green transformation that is taking place will, in a sense, reorganize the economy. A new balance of power will be generated.

I don’t really see a threat in terms of a shortage of raw materials, because this sector will continue to grow. This is a necessary factor for the green energy transformation to take place. More importantly, this constraint on the availability of raw materials will create specific relationships of dependency on the supplier of raw materials.

So potentially, one can imagine a situation where raw materials, which will be resources with limited access, will be used as an element of competition between countries, as well as on the basis of energy blackmail. Dependence on a given source of raw materials can continue to be exploited in the same way as dependence on energy, which we are currently witnessing.  

This will not be a problem in the case of small storage facilities, but in the case of storage facilities that perform a key balancing function in energy networks. If we buy such a warehouse from China or Korea, operational problems may arise because these warehouses need to be serviced and replaced over time. This may result in limiting energy sovereignty.

So what if we can get cheap energy from renewable sources if we can’t store it cheaply Even if we store it, it is in systems that we have to buy. The purchase price, and in the future ensuring their operability, i.e. periodic replacement with the same system, must therefore be added to the price of cheap energy. As a result, we will have expensive energy on the market, because it will depend on the cost of its storage.

Losing independence is the biggest risk in my opinion. The raw material will always be available in some sense. Can it be expected that it will even be offered at such favorable prices as to make individual recipients dependent on each other cell manufacturers.

It is important to realize that the green transformation that is taking place will, in a sense, reorganize the economy. A new balance of power will be generated. The measure of economic strength will actually be the ability to produce storage facilities and store energy obtained from RES at the lowest possible cost.