International Energy Agency cuts renewable energy forecasts: Record solar growth, but slowdown in the U.S. and China
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly lowered its global renewable energy capacity forecast for 2030. According to the latest data, global renewable capacity is expected to grow by 4,600 gigawatts — 900 GW less than projected just a year ago. The revision is due to weaker growth prospects in two key economies: the United States and China.
Solar remains the king of the transition
Despite the downward adjustment, solar energy continues to drive global renewable capacity growth, expected to account for nearly 80% of new installed capacity by the end of the decade. Photovoltaics are expanding at an impressive pace, supported by falling technology costs and rising demand from both private and public sectors.
Slowdown in the U.S. and China
The largest forecast cuts affect the U.S., where the early expiration of federal tax incentives and regulatory changes have led the IEA to halve its growth expectations. In China, the shift from fixed feed-in tariffs to competitive auctions has increased cost pressure on investors, limiting the profitability of new projects.
India and Europe on the rise
Lower expectations for the two largest players are partially offset by dynamic growth in other regions. India, poised to become the second-largest growth market after China, is on track to meet its ambitious 2030 targets, supported by expanded auction systems, faster administrative procedures, and a surge in rooftop PV installations.
Europe is also seeing improvement — more ambitious climate targets, an increasing number of auctions, and simplified permitting processes are creating favorable conditions for investors. Activity is also rising in developing countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, where falling technology costs align with new energy strategies.
Weak spot: offshore wind
Unlike photovoltaics, the offshore wind segment is experiencing a challenging period. According to the IEA, growth forecasts for offshore wind have been reduced by around 25% compared to last year, due to supply chain bottlenecks, rising investment costs, and political resets in several key markets.
Energy storage and geothermal enter the stage
The agency forecasts an acceleration in investment in pumped hydro storage, which is expected to grow 80% faster in the next five years than in the previous period. The increasing challenge of integrating large amounts of renewable energy into grids is boosting demand for flexible balancing capacity.
Geothermal investments are also expected to reach record levels, particularly in the U.S., Japan, Indonesia, and other emerging markets.
Global transition enters an adjustment phase
The latest IEA data show that while global renewable capacity growth remains impressive, the energy transition is entering a new phase — less rapid but more sustainable. Maintaining momentum will depend on stable regulatory frameworks, investments in transmission infrastructure, and supply chain diversification.